Linking the Earth’s Future to Migration: Scenarios of Environmental Change and Possible Impacts on Forced Migration

Frühmann, J. and Jäger, J. (2010)
In: Environment, Forced Migration and Social Vulnerability (2010): 247-262

This chapter discusses how to develop scenarios of environmental change to estimate future migration flows that are forced by environmental degradation. The methodology as well as the examples presented here was developed in the EU-funded project EACH-FOR ( www.each-for.eu ). In the next section, the chapter discusses environmental degradation and gives an overview of the ‘hot spots’ in the case studies. This section is followed by an introduction to scenarios in general and the scenario narratives of the fourth Global Environmental Outlook (GEO 4; UNEP and United Nations Environment Programme, 2007) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which were used in the EACH-FOR project. The fourth section gives a detailed description of the EACH-FOR approach – including two case study examples from Egypt and Mozambique. The chapter finishes with conclusions that sum up the first results of the work with scenarios in the case studies and reflect on the approach taken in the EACH-FOR project.

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