Implications of a persistent low growth path – A Scenario Analysis

Pirgmaier, E., Stocker, A. and Hinterberger F. (2010)

This paper provides the starting point of an ongoing research project that analyses the macroeconomic implications (on employment, consumption, income, public finances, resource use, CO2-emissions etc.) of a persistent low-growth path for the Austrian economy and society.

A persistent decline in economic growth has not yet been analysed in depth. Scientific literature on this issue is sparse. Mainstream economists have analysed low or no-growth economies in recessions and depressions but mostly focusing on fast economic recovery. Representatives of “downshifting” have assumed the position of individuals and minorities but implications for the entire economy and society are mostly neglected. So-called ‘growth pessimists’ (Steurer, 2001) usually focus on resource issues and less on economic questions. This means, there is not yet a comprehensive macroeconomic theory and no model that delivers economic stability without growth in consumption and production that remains within the ecological capacity of our planet.

You can download this paper here.

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